Futures bet
A long-term outright bet, such as a league title or tournament winner, settled when the competition ends.
Futures, called outrights or ante-post bets in Europe, are markets on results far ahead: a league champion, a Grand Slam winner, an esports world championship or a top-scorer award. Prices move as results come in, and many books keep the market open until the competition is decided.
Margin in outright markets
Each competitor carries some margin, and across a 20-team league the total adds up. Illustrative: if the implied probabilities of all 20 teams in a title market sum to 125%, the overround is 25% and the payout rate is 1/1.25 = 80%. A two-way match market at the same book might run at 104% to 105%.
Worked example
A team at 4.50 to win the league. A €100 stake returns €450 if they win. Implied probability: 1/4.50 = 22.2%. Assuming the margin is spread evenly, a rough fair probability is 22.2/1.25 = 17.8%, about 5.63 in fair odds.
Time value
Staking €100 in August on a title decided in May ties up capital for about nine months. Even at a modest 4% annual yield elsewhere, that is roughly €3 of forgone return (100 × 0.04 × 9/12 = €3), on top of the margin.
Counterparty risk
For crypto sportsbooks especially, a long-dated bet is also a bet that the operator will still be paying out next year. Some books offer cash out on outrights, which shortens that exposure at a price.